The optimists argue that the intergovernmental agreement for 17 + x sealed in the cold dawn of December 9 in Brussels is a historic step towards strengthening the fiscal and political union in the euro area. The veto of London, said the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has a great advantage in this dramatic moment, as it will allow faster approval of the pact, which should be ready in March or perhaps earlier. The method chosen does not oblige the signatories to approve in a referendum (except perhaps purist Ireland), and limits the transfer of sovereignty by encouraging reluctant countries (like France). All this, summarizes the optimist, opens the way to the threat of approvals which can be loaded in a coup of the project, as happened in 2005 with the European Constitution. But the intergovernmental solution desired by France and supported by Germany as a plan B, which has the advantage of leaving London, as the bad guy is far from being a way of wine and roses. According to the skeptics and pessimists, the proposal is approved with political paradoxes and legal weaknesses which can drag on for months for executives and lawyers have pointed out in Brussels. Seeing the glass as half full, if the Irish Government has agreed to submit to the referendum and lost, it would be outside the club, but that will not slow the integration of others. Similarly, if Nicholas Sarkozy loses the presidential election in April / May, and his successor (for example, Francois Hollande, failing Marine Le Pen) decides that he did not like the agreement and refuses to understand the “rule of ‘gold’ in the Constitution, other countries could freely follow his path. But, seeing the glass half empty, if Ireland has not signed and not follow others, and if France were to remove and be free, they actually served to break a little wagon wheel and be dramatic with London?
The worst scenario is London that block the project in court
There is an unprecedented trap scenario for alert Europhobes, suggesting that the agreement could open up an extensive menu of speed (two, three or seven?) – Orthodoxy such as Spain and Germany, the Czech Republic or as hot as the Sweden, those who wish to join the club as soon as possible, such as Poland. The effort is voluntary, but unlikely, say others, remembering that those who support it, not really support a pepper. One example is Denmark, which joined the cause of rigor for all. A spokesman admitted the night of the summit if his country was to hold a referendum on the euro, “we would have lost 70% of the votes.” But the main challenge is to adapt the European institutions to the new political will to move forward together. The design of 17 + x requires a “new framework” to give legal certainty to the project and make credible promises of austerity in the Franco-German directory, historically a sample breach of the Stability Pact. The agreement provides for close monitoring and asked to order the Commission, unless otherwise decided by penalties seeds-85% -, and veto of the European Court of the golden rules.